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Last updated on 2021-06-29.

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David Mihalyi

I am a development economist passionate about public finance, natural resources and economic transformation. Over the last 10 years I have worked on these issues from within government, think tank and academia as an advisor, trainer, lecturer, researcher and civil servant.

Current Positions

Senior Economic Analyst

Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)

UK/US

Current - 2014

  • A non-profit think tank providing technical assistance, training, applied research on extractive sector management and governance.
  • I advise policy makers on economic decisions faced by resource-rich countries in Ghana, Guyana, Mongolia, Uganda and Tanzania (see country policy articles section).
  • I lead NRGI’s global work on resource revenue management, coordinating and overseeing technical assistance, research and training delivery on the topic.
  • Designed the methodology of World Bank’s Mining Investment and Governance Review, contributed to building data projects including Resource Governance Index, ResourceProjects.org, NationalOilCompanyData.org
  • Working with and coordinating a global network of experts related to natural resource governance; representing the organization at international conferences.
  • Since 2016, I am based based at the Central European University (CEU) in Hungary as a research fellow.

PhD Candidate

Kiel Institute / Kiel University

Germany

Current - 2021

  • PhD research focused on natural resources, debt and economic transformation.
  • Supervisor: Christoph Trebesch
  • Associate at the Kiel Institute’s Research Center International Finance and Macroeconomics













Previous Experience

I have worked as a fiscal economist in a variety of roles in both developed and developing country settings.

Research Fellow

Central European University, School of Public Policy

Hungary

2020 - 2016

  • I wrote research centered on macroeconomic challenges facing resource-rich countries.
  • I was lead faculty at 2 week long professional course ‘Reversing the Resource Curse: Theory and Practice’ at CEU. Additional teaching and training activities (see teaching and training section).
  • Academic and policy presentations (see conferences section).

Member of Budget Committee

General Assembly of Budapest

Hungary

2020 - 2019

  • Appointed by the elected members of the General Assembly of Budapest (capital city with a population of 2 million) to sit on the budget committee as an external expert member.
  • I reviewed draft proposals and amendments relating to the capital city’s public finances ahead of tabling them in the General Assembly.
  • I provided advice on strategic decisions facing the city’s public finances.

Economist, ODI Fellow

Ministry of Finance and Economic Development

Sierra Leone

2013 - 2011

  • Member of the Budget Bureau. Placement through ODI Fellowship scheme sponsored by UK government.
  • Main responsibility was to support budget planning and monitoring by providing analytical reports, forecasts and briefing senior government officials.
  • Updated macro-fiscal projections, made budget impact evaluations, advised in discussions with donors, consultants and multilateral institutions, wrote briefing material ahead of IMF missions.
  • I made major contributions to mineral taxation evaluation and forecasting, medium-term macroeconomic projections and developing a proposal for a new fiscal rule for Sierra Leone.

Junior Economist

Central Bank of Hungary

Hungary

2011

  • Member of the fiscal analysis team.
  • Main task was to provide budgetary forecasts for the Inflation Report and provide regular assessment of newly arising budget proposals and fiscal developments.
  • Worked on improving forecasting methodologies and provided briefings to the Monetary Council of the Central Bank.

Junior Economist

Office of the Fiscal Council

Hungary

2010 - 2009

  • Joined this newly set up independent state institution tasked with making fiscal analysis and budget projections for Parliament.
  • Main task was to gather data, develop methodology and then provide budgetary forecasts of spending side.

Junior Economist (Intern)

Department for Work and Pensions

UK

2009

  • Enrolled through the Government Economic Service program for a 3-month internship
  • I worked on assessing the effectiveness of social policies targeting the elderly.






Education

PhD in Economics

Kiel University

Germany

Current - 2021

  • PhD research focused on natural resources, debt and economic transformation.

Microeconometrics Summer School

Barcelona Graduate School of Economics

Spain

2010

  • Studied impact evaluation and other empirical techniques.

Msc in Economics and Development Economics

University of Nottingham

UK

2009 - 2008

  • Graduated with merit

MA Program in Economics. Major: World Economics

Corvinus University of Budapest (CUB)

Hungary

2008 - 2002

  • Graduated with merit.
  • Advanced Mathematics, Economics.

College

Rajk László College for Advanced Studies

Hungary

2008 - 2004

  • Graduated with distinction.
  • Head of the Council for Academic Activities - Elected to lead five-person team responsible for the organization of courses, other academic activities for college members.

Erasmus Scholarship

IEP Sciences Po, Paris

France

2006 - 2005

  • Studied social sciences and international development (in French).






General Policy Articles

Key topics include fiscal rules, resource backed loans, national oil companies, sovereign wealth funds.

Resource-Backed Loans: Pitfalls and Potential

Natural Resource Governance Institute

N/A

2020

Massive and Misunderstood: Data-Driven Insights into National Oil Companies

Natural Resource Governance Institute

N/A

2019

Hidden Giants

Finance and Development, IMF

N/A

2019

  • Authored with Patrick Heller, David Manley
  • Discussion of risks related to national oil companies in light of energy transition

Premature Funds: How Overenthusiasm and Bad Advice Can Leave Countries Poorer

Natural Resource Governance Institute

N/A

2018

  • Authored with Andrew Bauer
  • Discussion of risks related to establishing Sovereign Wealth Funds in countries with no sizable net savings
  • Short summary on IMF PFM blog

The Presource Curse

Finance and Development, IMF

N/A

2018

  • Authored with James Cust
  • Summary and policy implications of our research on short-term growth impacts of giant oil discoveries

How did fiscal rules hold up in the commodity price crash?

Natural Resource Governance Institute

N/A

2018

  • Authored with Liliana Fernandez
  • Analysis of compliance with fiscal rule in resource rich countries
  • Short summary on IMF PFM blog

Mining Investment and Governance Review

World Bank (Extractives Global Practice)

N/A

2016

  • Lead on methodology and questionnaire design.
  • The Mining Investment and Governance Review was a WB analytical tool designed to strengthen the mining sector’s governance, investment environment and development impact.






Country Policy Articles

Worked mainly on Ghana, Guyana, Hungary, Mongolia, Uganda, Sierra Leone, Tanzania.

Challenges and Opportunities in Managing Guyana’s Oil Wealth

Oil, Gas & Energy Law

N/A

2020

  • Authored with Andrew Bauer
  • Analysis of Guyana’s proposed framework for managing oil wealth

Uncertain Potential: Managing Tanzania’s Gas Revenues

Governing Petroleum Resources Prospects and Challenges for Tanzania. Ed: Chr. Michelsen institute & REPOA. (Book chapter)

N/A

2019

  • Authored with Thomas Scurfield
  • Analysis of the viability of Tanzania’s gas sector and its potential impact on public finance
  • Underlying discounted cash flow model of LNG project available open source

Optimizing Ghana’s Fiscal Rule

Natural Resource Governance Institute

N/A

2017

  • Authored with Aisha Adam
  • Discussion of fiscal rule options for Ghana

Mongolia Fiscal Sustainability Report

Natural Resource Governance Institute

N/A

2017

  • Authored with Andrew Bauer, Ragchaasuren Galindev, Munkh-Orgil Lkhagvajav and Nomuuntugs Tuvaan
  • Analysis of long-term debt sustainability outlook of Monoglia in light of large mining sector investments
  • Underlying macro-fiscal model available open source

Mongolia Macro-Fiscal Model

Natural Resource Governance Institute

N/A

2017

  • Authored with Daniel Baksa, Balazs Romhanyi
  • Description and documentation of model used for Mongolia Sustainability Reports
  • A small-scale, semi-structural macroeconomic model providing long-term projections of mining sector, fiscal and economic variables. All built in Excel and available open source.

An empirical analysis of the fiscal effects of fuel taxation

Economic Bulletin, Government of Sierra Leone

N/A

2013

  • An analysis of Sierra Leone’s fuel pricing system
  • Analysis prepared to inform phasing out of fuel subsidies.








Research

My research explores cross-country differences in fiscal policy using mixed empirical techniques.

Debt Relief, Liquidity Provision, and Sovereign Bond Spreads

SSRN

N/A

2021

  • Authored with Valentin Lang and Andrea Presbitero
  • Analysis of short-term impact of G-20 debt suspension initiative on sovereign bond yields.
  • Revision requested, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
  • Summary on Voxeu

How did Africa’s Prospective Petroleum Producers Fall Victim to the Presource Curse?

Extractive Industries and Society Vol 8, Issue 1 (Elsevier)

N/A

2021

  • Authored with Thomas Scurfield
  • Evaluation of resource sector performance compared to historical forecasts
  • An extended version is available as World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9384.

Text-mining IMF country reports – An Original Dataset

MPRA Paper No. 100656

N/A

2019

  • Authored with Akos Mate
  • Demonstration of a novel dataset based on text of IMF Article IV reports to study fiscal policy adoption
  • Presented at Political Economy of International Organization (PEIO) 2019 and CSAE 2019 conference.

Bust before the boom? Macroeconomic responses to oil discoveries

CSAE Working Paper 2020

N/A

2019

  • Authored with James Cust, Mohamed Diaby, Torfinn Harding
  • Empirical assessment of the differential borrowing response of countries to giant oil discoveries
  • Accepted for presentation at CSAE 2020 conference.

Evidence for a presource curse? Oil discoveries, elevated expectations, and growth disappointments

World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8140.

N/A

2017

Daron Acemoglu the winner of the 2007 János Neumann Prize of the László Rajk Specialist College

Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences).

N/A

2008


Teaching Experience

I am passionate about education and mentoring.

Development Economics

Department of Economics, Eötvös Loránd University

Hungary

Current - 2018

  • Lecture to undergraduate students

Development Economics

Rajk Laszlo College, HU

Hungary

Current - 2017

  • Small group seminars

Intermediate Macroeconomics lecture

Fourah Bay College, Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone

2012

  • Lecture to undergraduate students

Comparative Economics

Comparative Economics Department, Corvinus University

Hungary

2007

  • Teaching assistant


Trainings delivered

Delivered training for the IMF CEF in Kuwait, NRGI courses in Accra, Budapest, Istanbul, Yaounde (in French). Other trainings/hackathons led in Harare, Lagos, London, Washington DC.


Presentations at conferences

World Bank Extractives Industries Week (DC), IMF seminar at FAD & Forum on Resource-Rich Economies (DC), Interdisciplinary Sovereign Debt Research and Management (DebtCon) Conference (DC), CSAE (Oxford), Development Economics and Policy (AEL), Data for Policy (Cambridge), ICMM tax seminar (London), International Open Data Conference (Mexico City), CERGIED workshop on Chinese investments in Central Africa (N’Djamena), CEU research seminar (Budapest), LCPS conference on Governance, Macroeconomics and Diversification in MENA (Beirut).