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David Mihalyi
I am a development economist passionate about public finance, natural resources and economic transformation. Over the last 10 years I have worked on these issues from within government, think tank and academia as an advisor, trainer, lecturer, researcher and civil servant.
Current Positions
Senior Economic Analyst
Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
UK/US
Current - 2014
- A non-profit think tank providing technical assistance, training, applied research on extractive sector management and governance.
- I advise policy makers on economic decisions faced by resource-rich countries in Ghana, Guyana, Mongolia, Uganda and Tanzania (see country policy articles section).
- I lead NRGI’s global work on resource revenue management, coordinating and overseeing technical assistance, research and training delivery on the topic.
- Designed the methodology of World Bank’s Mining Investment and Governance Review, contributed to building data projects including Resource Governance Index, ResourceProjects.org, NationalOilCompanyData.org
- Working with and coordinating a global network of experts related to natural resource governance; representing the organization at international conferences.
- Since 2016, I am based based at the Central European University (CEU) in Hungary as a research fellow.
PhD Candidate
Kiel Institute / Kiel University
Germany
Current - 2021
- PhD research focused on natural resources, debt and economic transformation.
- Supervisor: Christoph Trebesch
- Associate at the Kiel Institute’s Research Center International Finance and Macroeconomics
Previous Experience
I have worked as a fiscal economist in a variety of roles in both developed and developing country settings.
Research Fellow
Central European University, School of Public Policy
Hungary
2020 - 2016
- I wrote research centered on macroeconomic challenges facing resource-rich countries.
- I was lead faculty at 2 week long professional course ‘Reversing the Resource Curse: Theory and Practice’ at CEU. Additional teaching and training activities (see teaching and training section).
- Academic and policy presentations (see conferences section).
Member of Budget Committee
General Assembly of Budapest
Hungary
2020 - 2019
- Appointed by the elected members of the General Assembly of Budapest (capital city with a population of 2 million) to sit on the budget committee as an external expert member.
- I reviewed draft proposals and amendments relating to the capital city’s public finances ahead of tabling them in the General Assembly.
- I provided advice on strategic decisions facing the city’s public finances.
Economist, ODI Fellow
Ministry of Finance and Economic Development
Sierra Leone
2013 - 2011
- Member of the Budget Bureau. Placement through ODI Fellowship scheme sponsored by UK government.
- Main responsibility was to support budget planning and monitoring by providing analytical reports, forecasts and briefing senior government officials.
- Updated macro-fiscal projections, made budget impact evaluations, advised in discussions with donors, consultants and multilateral institutions, wrote briefing material ahead of IMF missions.
- I made major contributions to mineral taxation evaluation and forecasting, medium-term macroeconomic projections and developing a proposal for a new fiscal rule for Sierra Leone.
Junior Economist
Central Bank of Hungary
Hungary
2011
- Member of the fiscal analysis team.
- Main task was to provide budgetary forecasts for the Inflation Report and provide regular assessment of newly arising budget proposals and fiscal developments.
- Worked on improving forecasting methodologies and provided briefings to the Monetary Council of the Central Bank.
Junior Economist
Office of the Fiscal Council
Hungary
2010 - 2009
- Joined this newly set up independent state institution tasked with making fiscal analysis and budget projections for Parliament.
- Main task was to gather data, develop methodology and then provide budgetary forecasts of spending side.
Junior Economist (Intern)
Department for Work and Pensions
UK
2009
- Enrolled through the Government Economic Service program for a 3-month internship
- I worked on assessing the effectiveness of social policies targeting the elderly.
Education
PhD in Economics
Kiel University
Germany
Current - 2021
- PhD research focused on natural resources, debt and economic transformation.
Microeconometrics Summer School
Barcelona Graduate School of Economics
Spain
2010
- Studied impact evaluation and other empirical techniques.
Msc in Economics and Development Economics
University of Nottingham
UK
2009 - 2008
- Graduated with merit
MA Program in Economics. Major: World Economics
Corvinus University of Budapest (CUB)
Hungary
2008 - 2002
- Graduated with merit.
- Advanced Mathematics, Economics.
College
Rajk László College for Advanced Studies
Hungary
2008 - 2004
- Graduated with distinction.
- Head of the Council for Academic Activities - Elected to lead five-person team responsible for the organization of courses, other academic activities for college members.
Erasmus Scholarship
IEP Sciences Po, Paris
France
2006 - 2005
- Studied social sciences and international development (in French).
General Policy Articles
Key topics include fiscal rules, resource backed loans, national oil companies, sovereign wealth funds.
Resource-Backed Loans: Pitfalls and Potential
Natural Resource Governance Institute
N/A
2020
- Authored with Jyhjong Hwang, Aisha Adam
- Analysis of public finance risks related to resource backed lending based on original dataset
- Featured in Reuters, Quartz Africa, South China Morning Post
- Cited by IMF Policy Paper 20/003
Massive and Misunderstood: Data-Driven Insights into National Oil Companies
Natural Resource Governance Institute
N/A
2019
- Authored with Patrick Heller
- Analysis of original dataset on the balance sheet of 71 national oil companies
- Op-ed in Foreign Policy
- Cited by IMF Fiscal Monitor April 2020
Premature Funds: How Overenthusiasm and Bad Advice Can Leave Countries Poorer
Natural Resource Governance Institute
N/A
2018
- Authored with Andrew Bauer
- Discussion of risks related to establishing Sovereign Wealth Funds in countries with no sizable net savings
- Short summary on IMF PFM blog
The Presource Curse
Finance and Development, IMF
N/A
2018
- Authored with James Cust
- Summary and policy implications of our research on short-term growth impacts of giant oil discoveries
How did fiscal rules hold up in the commodity price crash?
Natural Resource Governance Institute
N/A
2018
- Authored with Liliana Fernandez
- Analysis of compliance with fiscal rule in resource rich countries
- Short summary on IMF PFM blog
Mining Investment and Governance Review
World Bank (Extractives Global Practice)
N/A
2016
- Lead on methodology and questionnaire design.
- The Mining Investment and Governance Review was a WB analytical tool designed to strengthen the mining sector’s governance, investment environment and development impact.
Country Policy Articles
Worked mainly on Ghana, Guyana, Hungary, Mongolia, Uganda, Sierra Leone, Tanzania.
Challenges and Opportunities in Managing Guyana’s Oil Wealth
Oil, Gas & Energy Law
N/A
2020
- Authored with Andrew Bauer
- Analysis of Guyana’s proposed framework for managing oil wealth
Uncertain Potential: Managing Tanzania’s Gas Revenues
Governing Petroleum Resources Prospects and Challenges for Tanzania. Ed: Chr. Michelsen institute & REPOA. (Book chapter)
N/A
2019
- Authored with Thomas Scurfield
- Analysis of the viability of Tanzania’s gas sector and its potential impact on public finance
- Underlying discounted cash flow model of LNG project available open source
Optimizing Ghana’s Fiscal Rule
Natural Resource Governance Institute
N/A
2017
- Authored with Aisha Adam
- Discussion of fiscal rule options for Ghana
Mongolia Fiscal Sustainability Report
Natural Resource Governance Institute
N/A
2017
- Authored with Andrew Bauer, Ragchaasuren Galindev, Munkh-Orgil Lkhagvajav and Nomuuntugs Tuvaan
- Analysis of long-term debt sustainability outlook of Monoglia in light of large mining sector investments
- Underlying macro-fiscal model available open source
Mongolia Macro-Fiscal Model
Natural Resource Governance Institute
N/A
2017
- Authored with Daniel Baksa, Balazs Romhanyi
- Description and documentation of model used for Mongolia Sustainability Reports
- A small-scale, semi-structural macroeconomic model providing long-term projections of mining sector, fiscal and economic variables. All built in Excel and available open source.
An empirical analysis of the fiscal effects of fuel taxation
Economic Bulletin, Government of Sierra Leone
N/A
2013
- An analysis of Sierra Leone’s fuel pricing system
- Analysis prepared to inform phasing out of fuel subsidies.
Research
My research explores cross-country differences in fiscal policy using mixed empirical techniques.
Debt Relief, Liquidity Provision, and Sovereign Bond Spreads
SSRN
N/A
2021
- Authored with Valentin Lang and Andrea Presbitero
- Analysis of short-term impact of G-20 debt suspension initiative on sovereign bond yields.
- Revision requested, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
- Summary on Voxeu
How did Africa’s Prospective Petroleum Producers Fall Victim to the Presource Curse?
Extractive Industries and Society Vol 8, Issue 1 (Elsevier)
N/A
2021
- Authored with Thomas Scurfield
- Evaluation of resource sector performance compared to historical forecasts
- An extended version is available as World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9384.
Text-mining IMF country reports – An Original Dataset
MPRA Paper No. 100656
N/A
2019
- Authored with Akos Mate
- Demonstration of a novel dataset based on text of IMF Article IV reports to study fiscal policy adoption
- Presented at Political Economy of International Organization (PEIO) 2019 and CSAE 2019 conference.
Bust before the boom? Macroeconomic responses to oil discoveries
CSAE Working Paper 2020
N/A
2019
- Authored with James Cust, Mohamed Diaby, Torfinn Harding
- Empirical assessment of the differential borrowing response of countries to giant oil discoveries
- Accepted for presentation at CSAE 2020 conference.
Evidence for a presource curse? Oil discoveries, elevated expectations, and growth disappointments
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8140.
N/A
2017
- Authored with James Cust
- Empirical assessment of short-term growth impacts of giant oil discoveries versus IMF growth forecast counterfactuals
- Featured in The Economist
- Cited by IMF Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries 2018/. Presented at NEUDC, AEL, CSAE.
Daron Acemoglu the winner of the 2007 János Neumann Prize of the László Rajk Specialist College
Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences).
N/A
2008
- With Reka Juhasz and Gyozo Gyongyosi
- Piece written to summarize the research of Daron Acemoglu and announcing his prize acceptance lecture at my former college
- Also served as an introduction to a book I co-edited translating his selected works into Hungarian, published as “The origins of economic development – a selection of the works of Daron Acemoglu”
Teaching Experience
I am passionate about education and mentoring.
Development Economics
Department of Economics, Eötvös Loránd University
Hungary
Current - 2018
- Lecture to undergraduate students
Development Economics
Rajk Laszlo College, HU
Hungary
Current - 2017
- Small group seminars
Intermediate Macroeconomics lecture
Fourah Bay College, Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone
2012
- Lecture to undergraduate students
Comparative Economics
Comparative Economics Department, Corvinus University
Hungary
2007
- Teaching assistant
Trainings delivered
Delivered training for the IMF CEF in Kuwait, NRGI courses in Accra, Budapest, Istanbul, Yaounde (in French). Other trainings/hackathons led in Harare, Lagos, London, Washington DC.
Presentations at conferences
World Bank Extractives Industries Week (DC), IMF seminar at FAD & Forum on Resource-Rich Economies (DC), Interdisciplinary Sovereign Debt Research and Management (DebtCon) Conference (DC), CSAE (Oxford), Development Economics and Policy (AEL), Data for Policy (Cambridge), ICMM tax seminar (London), International Open Data Conference (Mexico City), CERGIED workshop on Chinese investments in Central Africa (N’Djamena), CEU research seminar (Budapest), LCPS conference on Governance, Macroeconomics and Diversification in MENA (Beirut).